Gartner Identifies Top Ten Disruptive Technologies for 2008 to 2012


gartner logoSocial networking technologies, web mashups, multicore and hybrid processors and cloud computing are amongst the ten most disruptive technologies[1] that will shape the information technology (IT) landscape over the next five years, according to research and advisory firm Gartner, Inc.

Speaking at the Gartner Emerging Trends and Technologies Roadshow in Melbourne today, Gartner Fellow David Cearley said that business IT applications will start to mirror the features found in popular consumer social software, such as Facebook and MySpace, as organisations look to improve employee collaboration and harness the community feedback of customers.

“Social software provides a platform that encourages participation and feedback from employees and customers alike,” he said. “The added value for businesses is being able to collect this feedback into a single point that reflects collective attitudes, which can help shape a business strategy.”

Multicore processors are expanding the horizons of what’s possible with software, but single-threaded applications won’t be able to take advantage of their power, Cearley said. Enterprises should therefore “perform an audit to identify applications that will need remediation to continue to meet service-level requirements in the multicore era.”

By 2010, Gartner predicts that web mashups, which mix content from publicly available sources, will be the dominant model (80 percent) for the creation of new enterprise applications.

“Because mashups can be created quickly and easily, they create possibilities for a new class of short-term or disposable applications that would not normally attract development dollars,” said Mr Cearley. “The ability to combine information into a common dashboard or visualise it using geo-location or mapping software is extremely powerful.”

According to Gartner, within the next five years, information will be presented via new user interfaces such as organic light-emitting displays, digital paper and billboards, holographic and 3D imaging and smart fabric.

By 2010, it will cost less than US$1 to add a three-axis accelerometer – which allows a device, such as Nintendo’s Wii controller, to sense when and how it is being moved – to a piece of electronic equipment. “Acceleration and attitude (tilt) can be combined with technologies such as wireless to perform functions such as ‘touch to exchange business cards,’” said Mr Cearley.

According to Mr Cearley, Chief Information Officers (CIOs) who see their jobs as “keeping the data centre running, business continuity planning and finding new technology toys to show to people” will not survive. Instead, they will have to think beyond the constraints of conventional, in order to identify the technologies that might be in widespread use a few years from now.

Gartner recommends that CIOs establish a formal mechanism for evaluating emerging trends and technologies, set up virtual teams of their best staff, and give them time to spend researching new ideas and innovations, especially those that are being driven by consumer and Web 2.0 technologies.

“The CIO then needs to act as a conduit from the business to the technology. He or she needs to see how it might be possible to use these technologies to solve a problem the business has identified,” Mr Cearley said.

Gartner’s top 10 disruptive technologies 2008-2012:

  • Multicore and hybrid processors
  • Virtualisation and fabric computing
  • Social networks and social software
  • Cloud computing and cloud/Web platforms
  • Web mashups
  • User Interface
  • Ubiquitous computing
  • Contextual computing
  • Augmented reality
  • Semantics

Gartner’s Emerging Trends and Technologies Roadshow continues in Perth on Friday 30 May, Singapore on Tuesday 3 June and Hong Kong on Thursday 5 June 2008.

Members of the media can register by contacting Susan Moore at susan.moore@gartner.com

[1] Gartner defines a disruptive technology as one that causes major change in ‘the accepted way of doing things’, including business models, processes, revenue streams, industry dynamics and consumer behaviour.

About Gartner
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE: IT) is the world’s leading information technology research and advisory company. Gartner delivers the technology-related insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is the indispensable partner to 60,000 clients in 10,000 distinct organizations. Through the resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, U.S.A., and has 4,000 associates, including 1,200 research analysts and consultants in 75 countries. For more information, visit www.gartner.com.





Filed in: Industry Buzz


  • http://john.jones.name john.jones.name

    couple of things

    Virtualization just simply improves the up time and actually allows people to correctly manage server process’s Virtualization on the desktop is very much pointless unless you want to reset your machine every login

    Semantics – this is going to power more and more websites to give correct answers wikipedia is a great source and with IE 8 the ability to read in data and post it off to an external site is a great thing encouraging more semantic web type of content that in turn new tools will be able to make sense of

    regards

    John Jones
    http://www.johnjones.me.uk

  • http://cellecast.com Andrew Deal

    I don’t see anything on the list relating to new media or mobile, which is surprising. I think this list should really be more real world, relating to ‘what we will be able to do’ vs what we can do now.

    The mashing, clouding and connecting of information only goes so far in peoples real lives without relating it to specific breakthroughs in personal empowerment result.

  • http://www.gameslafresco.com Ori Inbar

    totally agree that augmented reality will be big. to see the best of the best in augmented reality
    check out my blog at http://www.gamesalfresco.com : “in pursuit of the ultimate augmented reality game”

  • Vince

    I think people are excited about other people being excited and that this list is nothing more than a bunch of buzzwords.

    Its easy to say social networks will be big over the next 4 years because thats whats big now and its all the rage. A few years from now something else will be the next big thing.

    Facebook is the end of social networks, it has majority of the market and almost every person I know can’t be bothered registering at yet another social site to do exactly the same thing. At the end of the day, we just want to communicate with each other and Facebook has satisfied that need. If you think otherwise then you site in the geek spectrum of the web, a user who likes to try new things. The average person won’t bother with anything else.

    P.S
    Twitter is a fkn joke!

  • Bill Haase

    This list is lame and does not take into account some of the truely great technology advances that will take hold over the coming years. For example, things like Nano-Assemblers and their integration with Quantum Computers and massively parallel computing software which will totally change manufacturing, and medicine for starters. Imagine how “construction” changes when you are doing it at a molecular level. Think how that might impact energy development? These things really change our future. Details on interfaces with “gestures” and multi-touch interfaces will change how we interact and virtual worlds will change how science is performed. Public education will be impacted by large scale Simulations and hopefully impact how public policy will be developed by the integration of Sociology, statistics, economics through these simulations.

  • Han

    “Virtualization just simply improves the up time and actually allows people to correctly manage server process’s
    Virtualization on the desktop is very much pointless unless you want to reset your machine every login”

    It helps me separate out my development OSes/Apps/Servers from my host OS’s main installation of stuff.
    Which are games, AV recording apps, and other fun things.
    This, without spending money on an extra computer to eat up power and heat up my home-office.
    Seems pretty useful, at least to me.

  • Sammy Alzofon

    I’ve been holding this article on my e-mail queue for months, and finally read it this a.m. How appropriate. I took a buyout from my employer in August, and know this would not have been a necessary corporate strategy if someone had been minding the store, and not guarding their silos. Thank you for this update …

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